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Russia May 2020: Lada 4×4, Toyota Prado defy market skewered -51.8%

The Lada 4×4 scores the best year-on-year hold in the Top 15 (-30.4%).

In the space of two months, Russia went from 8.672 confirmed COVID-19 cases when we published our March 2020 update to 440.538 at the time of writing, ranking third in the word below the USA (1.861.966) and Brazil (584.016). Under a national lockdown implemented on April 2, car showrooms in Moscow, St Petersburg – the cities most affected by the virus – and most of the regional dealers continued to be closed the entire month. Workshops could re-start their operations progressively and consequently customer traffic gained some momentum towards the second part of the month according to local association AEB. Movement restrictions were eased through May but not until June 1 in Moscow, the epicentre of the pandemic in the country. Accordingly, from -72.4% in April, Russian new car sales better somewhat in May at -51.8% to 63.033 units. The year-to-date tally is now down -25.7% to 478.135. We still forecast a Russian market down -20% in 2020 to 1.4m units.

The Toyota Prado breaks its Russian ranking record at #17.

Lada (-45.8%) performs better than the market, resulting in an improved share at 24.7% vs. 21.9% so far this year. Kia (-58.9%) holds onto the 2nd spot while Hyundai (-56.5%), Renault (-46.8%), Toyota (-43.1%), Volkswagen (-58.4%) and Skoda (-58.6%) reposition themselves to follow the year-to-date brand order for the Top 7. Light Commercial vehicle maker GAZ (-38.9%) scores the best hold in the Top 10 and remains at #8, while Nissan (-45.7%) and UAZ (-45%) round out the Top 10 in sturdy fashion. Lexus (-27.8%) bravely contains its loss but the heroes this month are mostly Chinese: Haval (+4.9%) scores the only year-on-year gain in the in the Top 20 and cracks the Top 15 for the second time ever after last January, becoming the first Chinese brand to do so as Lifan could only manage one Top 15 finish in December 2015. Changan (+124.3%) once again scores the largest gain in the entire Russian market but drops 5 spots to #25. Isuzu (+29.1%) FAW (+18.6%) and Fiat (+1.1%) are the only additional gainers but each sells less than 90 units for the month, while Suzuki (-19.6%) and Chery (-33.7%) both manage reasonable holds.

The Kia Seltos breaks into the Russian Top 20 for the first time in May.

Over in the models ranking, the Lada Granta (-48.4%) scores a 14th consecutive pole position, even reaching its 2nd highest market share at home at 9.1% below only the 10% hit back in June 2015. The Lada Vesta (-49.3%) remains in third place above the Kia Rio (-56.3%) while the Hyundai Creta (-43.9%) reclaims the #1 SUV spot after a freak interruption of its 44 consecutive months of reign (ever since its launch in August 2016) by the VW Tiguan last month. The VW Polo (-56.2%) closes the Top 5 like YTD and the Lada Largus (-38.2%) manages another slim drop to stay at a its highest ranking in almost 5 years (#6). The 42 year-old Lada 4×4 (-30.4%) incredibly manages the best hold in the Top 15 and at #8 overall it is the 2nd best-selling SUV in Russia this month! It distances the Renault Duster (-55.2%), Toyota RAV4 (-51.3%) and last month’s leader the VW Tiguan (-58.9%). The Toyota Prado (-10.3%) resists best in the Top 15 and leaps to #17 a new record eclipsing the #18 it reached in August 2016. Finally the new Kia Seltos, one month after breaking into the Russian Top 25 for the first time, now secures its first Top 20 finish.

Previous month: Russia April 2020: Late lockdown bridles market down -72.4%

One year ago: Russia May 2019: Skoda, Lada Granta, Vesta can’t help steepest market fall in almost 3 years (-6.7%)

Full May 2020 Top 50 All-brands and Top 25 models below.

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