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Germany September 2021: Tesla Model 3 only 58 sales below VW Golf, market down -25.7%

The Tesla Model 3 just misses out on an outright victory in Germany.

The German new car market dives -25.7% year-on-year in September to 196.972 units, tilting the year-to-date volume into negative territory at -1.2% and 2.017.561. We have adjusted our 2021 Forecast slightly down to 2.79 million units (-4%) which would be the lowest annual German volume in 36 years: since 1985 (2.38m). In the brands ranking, Volkswagen (-23.3%) and BMW (-18.7%) both resist better than their home market and cement their leading positions in the ranking. Mercedes (-49.8%) implodes to 7% share vs. 8.2% so far this year. Opel (-1.2%) posts the best result in the Top 9 and climbs to #4, its highest ranking since September 2018 (#3). Hyundai (-11.8%)  breaks into the German Top 5 for the very first time at #5, eclipsing its previous ranking record of #6 set just last month. Reversely Ford (-51.3%), Skoda (-47.5%), Audi (-38.9%) and Renault (-33.3%) all sink. Tesla (+157.8%) goes completely against the negative trend and cracks the German Top 10 for the first time at #10 with 4% share. Other gainers further down include Cupra (+4552.5%), Maserati (+212.5%), Alpine (+157.1%), Lada (+116.1%), Polestar (+108.7%), DS (+73.8%), Rolls Royce (+66.7%), Aston Martin (+58.8%), Suzuki (+50%), Smart (+23%), Lexus (+20.1%) and Bentley (+18%).

Historical event in the German models ranking: the VW Golf’s pole position is under threat: down -41% year-on-year it only holds 3.5% of its home market. In contrast, the Tesla Model 3 (+146%) takes the brand’s backloading in end-of-quarters to the next level and ends the month at #2 overall, only 58 sales below the Golf and smashing its ranking, volume (6.828) and share (3.5%) records in the process. A staggering performance by the world’s favourite EV. The Opel Corsa (-31.6%) rallies back up 22 spots on August to land on the third step of the podium, while the Fiat 500 lineup (-30%) breaks its ranking record for the second month running at #4. The BMW 3 Series (+16.5%) shines but is down two ranks on last month to #5, distancing the VW T-Roc (-15.7%) and Up (+25.4%). The Hyundai Kona (-9.3%) breaks into the German Top 10 for the second time after last December (#10) at a record #8 while the new gen Opel Mokka delivers the nameplate’s first ever Top 10 at #9 (previous best #12 in August 2017). The Skoda Enyaq is up 25 spots on August to climb to a record 23rd place, just as the Tesla Model Y is up 13 to #62 and the Hyundai Ioniq 5 is up 14 to #68. This month we welcome the Hyundai Staria at #156 and the Kia EV6 at #273.

Previous month: Germany August 2021: VW Up, Fiat 500, Tesla Model 3 break records in market off -23%

One year ago: Germany September 2020: First sales uptick of the year (+8.4%), Skoda in Top 5, Opel Corsa #2, Seat Leon #5

Full September 2021 Top 50 All-brands and Top 305 All-models below.

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