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Russia September 2020: Volumes up 3.4%, Skoda (+31%) shines, Geely up to Chinese record #12

Geely is up 171.2% to #12, the highest monthly ranking ever held by a Chinese carmaker in Russia. Picture

In September, the Russian new light vehicle market registers a second year-on-year gain in the past 3 months and the third thus year after March and July at +3.4% to 154.409 units. Keep in mind monthly data doesn’t include BMW, Mercedes and Mini who now report quarterly. The year-to-date tally does include these 3 brands though and stands at 1.094.805 units, down -13.9% on the same period in 2019. According to local manufacturer association AEB, “deferred purchase demand, weakening Ruble, lower travel activities and state support measures led to this month’s market growth.” AEB forecasts a 2020 future of 1.522.000 units (-13.5%), we are more optimistic at 1.560.000 sales (-11.5%) and have amended our 2020 Russia Forecast accordingly.

The 2nd generation Rapid (#9) helps Skoda up 31% in September. Picture

Local behemoth Lada (+11.9%) vastly outperforms its home market in September, hitting 22.8% share or two percentage points below its YTD level of 20.8%. The Top 6 best-selling carmakers are all in positive, illustrating a marked concentration of the market towards trusted brands. Kia (+6.3%) and Hyundai (+14.5%) round out the podium as they do year-to-date, with Renault (+5.1%) and Volkswagen (+11.7%) in tow and Skoda (+31%) the most dynamic by far. UAZ (+7%) is the only remainder Top 10 member to post a gain tough, with GAZ (-26.2%) and Nissan (-24.2%) in difficulty.

We have a surprise just below: whereas Haval (+21%) had been dominating the Chinese scene over the past few months, it’s Geely (+171.2%) that surges 3 spots on a record 15th place last month to score the highest ever monthly ranking held by a Chinese manufacturer in Russia at #12. Chery (+147.5%) is up two spots to lift its ranking record to #16, Changan (+230.4%) repeats at an all-time high #20 and both Foton (+127.3%) and FAW (+72.9%) are also on fire. As a result, Chinese brands as a whole shoot up 90.9% to 6.781 sales and 4.4% share in September, up 39.9% to 3.3% share so far in 2020.

Chery is up 147.5% to a record 16th place. Picture

Over in the models ranking, both the Lada Granta (+11.4%) and Vesta (+21.9%) post spectacular gains to cement their domination, holding a combined 15.6% share vs. 14.3% YTD. The Kia Rio (+0.9%) resists a solid assault by the Hyundai Creta (+21.6%) to remain on the podium, while the VW Polo (+11.9%) and Hyundai Solaris (+0.1%) ensure the Top 6 models are identical to August and YTD. The Toyota RAV4 (+147.8%) storms back up 7 spots on last month to the #7 rank it holds YTD, the Skoda Octavia (+76.8%), Renault Logan (+22.3%) and VW Tiguan (+13.6%) all post fantastic gains below while the Skoda Rapid II slides a further two ranks on August to a still very impressive 9th place.

Previous month: Russia August 2020: VW (+33.7%), Skoda (+28.5%), Hyundai (+24.2%), Chinese (+79.3%) can’t help new decline (-0.5%)

One year ago: Russia September 2019: Renault (+28.2%) stuns in 7th market decline in past 8 months

Full September 2020 Top 53 All-brands and Top 25 models below.

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