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Russia September 2020: Volumes up 3.4%, Skoda (+31%) shines, Geely up to Chinese record #12

Geely is up 171.2% to #12, the highest monthly ranking ever held by a Chinese carmaker in Russia. Picture zr.ru

In September, the Russian new light vehicle market registers a second year-on-year gain in the past 3 months and the third thus year after March and July at +3.4% to 154.409 units. Keep in mind monthly data doesn’t include BMW, Mercedes and Mini who now report quarterly. The year-to-date tally does include these 3 brands though and stands at 1.094.805 units, down -13.9% on the same period in 2019. According to local manufacturer association AEB, “deferred purchase demand, weakening Ruble, lower travel activities and state support measures led to this month’s market growth.” AEB forecasts a 2020 future of 1.522.000 units (-13.5%), we are more optimistic at 1.560.000 sales (-11.5%) and have amended our 2020 Russia Forecast accordingly.

The 2nd generation Rapid (#9) helps Skoda up 31% in September. Picture zr.ru

Local behemoth Lada (+11.9%) vastly outperforms its home market in September, hitting 22.8% share or two percentage points below its YTD level of 20.8%. The Top 6 best-selling carmakers are all in positive, illustrating a marked concentration of the market towards trusted brands. Kia (+6.3%) and Hyundai (+14.5%) round out the podium as they do year-to-date, with Renault (+5.1%) and Volkswagen (+11.7%) in tow and Skoda (+31%) the most dynamic by far. UAZ (+7%) is the only remainder Top 10 member to post a gain tough, with GAZ (-26.2%) and Nissan (-24.2%) in difficulty.

We have a surprise just below: whereas Haval (+21%) had been dominating the Chinese scene over the past few months, it’s Geely (+171.2%) that surges 3 spots on a record 15th place last month to score the highest ever monthly ranking held by a Chinese manufacturer in Russia at #12. Chery (+147.5%) is up two spots to lift its ranking record to #16, Changan (+230.4%) repeats at an all-time high #20 and both Foton (+127.3%) and FAW (+72.9%) are also on fire. As a result, Chinese brands as a whole shoot up 90.9% to 6.781 sales and 4.4% share in September, up 39.9% to 3.3% share so far in 2020.

Chery is up 147.5% to a record 16th place. Picture zr.ru

Over in the models ranking, both the Lada Granta (+11.4%) and Vesta (+21.9%) post spectacular gains to cement their domination, holding a combined 15.6% share vs. 14.3% YTD. The Kia Rio (+0.9%) resists a solid assault by the Hyundai Creta (+21.6%) to remain on the podium, while the VW Polo (+11.9%) and Hyundai Solaris (+0.1%) ensure the Top 6 models are identical to August and YTD. The Toyota RAV4 (+147.8%) storms back up 7 spots on last month to the #7 rank it holds YTD, the Skoda Octavia (+76.8%), Renault Logan (+22.3%) and VW Tiguan (+13.6%) all post fantastic gains below while the Skoda Rapid II slides a further two ranks on August to a still very impressive 9th place.

Previous month: Russia August 2020: VW (+33.7%), Skoda (+28.5%), Hyundai (+24.2%), Chinese (+79.3%) can’t help new decline (-0.5%)

One year ago: Russia September 2019: Renault (+28.2%) stuns in 7th market decline in past 8 months

Full September 2020 Top 53 All-brands and Top 25 models below.

Russia September 2020 – brands:

PosBrandSep-20%/19Aug2020%/19PosFY19
1Lada35,26422.8%11.9%1227,66120.8%-14.2%11
2Kia20,40213.2%6.3%2139,47712.7%-17.0%22
3Hyundai18,38011.9%14.5%3114,01310.4%-13.6%33
4Renault14,0079.1%5.1%588,0548.0%-14.1%44
5Volkswagen10,6746.9%11.7%470,8706.5%-7.0%55
6Skoda9,6166.2%31.0%665,1636.0%6.0%77
7Toyota8,4945.5%-9.7%766,1696.0%-11.1%66
8Nissan5,6233.6%-24.2%940,5353.7%-16.7%88
9GAZ4,4512.9%-26.2%831,7472.9%-25.2%99
10UAZ3,8052.5%7.0%1021,6182.0%-17.9%1213
11Mitsubishi3,0942.0%-18.0%1119,6181.8%-32.0%1312
12Geely2,1781.4%171.2%159,7410.9%53.6%1921
13Mazda1,7191.1%-42.2%1218,1601.7%-16.8%1414
14Ford1,5731.0%-11.1%198,9090.8%-65.7%2015
15Datsun1,5111.0%-24.1%1612,0911.1%-26.8%1616
16Chery1,4901.0%147.5%186,3650.6%50.0%2227
17Audi1,4450.9%2.1%1710,1310.9%-10.7%1819
18Haval1,4220.9%21.0%1411,6471.1%65.8%1720
19Lexus1,2590.8%-44.7%1314,1481.3%-9.4%1517
20Changan1,0210.7%230.4%204,8090.4%268.2%2533
21Volvo8320.5%-14.7%214,9440.5%-16.1%2422
22Suzuki7890.5%-3.0%235,3960.5%14.0%2324
23Subaru7650.5%18.6%244,1240.4%-21.5%2825
24Land Rover6010.4%-14.0%284,1640.4%-30.5%2723
25Porsche5620.4%-2.8%224,3010.4%2.4%2628
26Peugeot5420.4%20.2%262,9990.3%-10.5%3029
27Volkswagen Vans4460.3%-32.9%253,6550.3%-32.4%2926
28FAW3630.2%72.9%271,8680.2%94.6%3241
29Citroen3260.2%22.6%292,2180.2%-2.1%3132
30Infiniti2630.2%-22.2%321,2900.1%-53.9%3431
31Cadillac2450.2%178.4%341,0230.1%52.9%3845
32Fiat1650.1%42.2%359140.1%5.2%4143
33Genesis1400.1%-31.4%371,0070.1%-35.6%3935
34Lifan1380.1%-41.0%361,0040.1%-71.1%4030
35Jeep1370.1%6.2%301,2310.1%-10.3%3536
36Dongfeng1050.1%2.9%397140.1%-38.8%4240
37Opel1030.1%n/a383050.0%n/a4655
38Honda850.1%-36.1%331,1780.1%-12.0%3637
39Jaguar820.1%-40.1%406740.1%-48.6%4438
40Isuzu730.0%-1.4%416900.1%15.6%4346
41Chevrolet520.0%-97.2%423920.0%-97.6%4518
42Iveco460.0%31.4%442510.0%-14.9%4748
43Niva400.0%n/a318,8110.8%n/a2144
44Brilliance270.0%-28.9%431360.0%-20.9%5050
45Foton250.0%127.3%47650.0%-59.4%5151
46Hyundai LCV170.0%-5.6%461470.0%-43.7%4949
47Zotye120.0%-82.1%451580.0%-87.0%4842
48Chrysler00.0%-100.0%48220.0%-38.9%5354
49BMW00.0%-100.0% –29,6712.7%-1.9%1011
50Mercedes00.0%-100.0% –27,4972.5%-7.2%1110
51Mini00.0%-100.0% –1,8200.2%-1.8%3334
52Mercedes Vans00.0%-100.0% –1,1540.1%6.0%3739
53Smart00.0%-100.0% –560.0%-90.8%5247

Russia September 2020 – models:

PosModelSep-20%/19Aug2020%/19PosFY19
1Lada Granta12,4888.1%11.4%184,4107.7%-13.0%11
2Lada Vesta11,5207.5%21.9%272,4646.6%-13.2%22
3Kia Rio7,8305.1%0.9%358,6895.4%-15.4%33
4Hyundai Creta7,7905.0%21.6%452,0984.8%0.2%44
5VW Polo6,0203.9%11.8%541,6343.8%-1.8%56
6Hyundai Solaris5,4103.5%0.1%632,8713.0%-27.4%65
7Toyota RAV44,1462.7%147.8%1426,0482.4%22.5%715
8Renault Logan3,8852.5%22.3%1221,6602.0%-14.0%1010
9Skoda Rapid PA II3,7492.4%new715,2531.4%new18 –
10VW Tiguan3,6262.3%13.6%823,7442.2%-6.7%99
11Skoda Octavia3,5972.3%76.8%1718,1421.7%4.8%1618
12Lada Largus3,3942.2%-11.5%1125,4702.3%-19.6%87
13Renault Duster3,1092.0%-0.9%921,2121.9%-23.3%118
14Renault Sandero2,9951.9%9.2%1918,4241.7%-16.6%1516
15Toyota Camry2,9281.9%-1.5%1319,9511.8%-20.3%1313
16Kia Sportage2,8851.9%-5.8%1020,4051.9%-21.7%1212
17Hyundai Tucson2,8531.8%66.1%1613,7111.3%-16.5%2324
18Lada 4×42,8091.8%-12.7%1519,3911.8%-17.4%1414
19Kia Optima2,3421.5%-12.5%2313,1721.2%-32.4%2420
20Nissan X-Trail2,3031.5%0.6%n/a14,1511.3%-8.9%2027
21Renault Kaptur2,1811.4%3.5%2014,2771.3%-29.1%1919
22Mitsubishi Outlander2,0741.3%-14.0%24n/an/an/an/a23
23Nissan Qashqai2,0171.3%-35.2%1816,2881.5%-10.5%1721
24Avtovaz Niva1,8501.2%n/an/an/an/an/an/a26
25Lada XRAY1,7761.2%-33.5%n/a13,7461.3%-36.3%2217
n/aMazda CX-51,1640.8%-50.4%2213,8081.3%-13.4%2125
n/aSkoda Kodiaq1,1330.7%-50.7%n/a12,5831.1%-28.2%2522

Source: AEB

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