The Hyundai Creta scores another outstanding month in India.
After -100% in April and -85.4% in May, Indian new car wholesales sink another -47.2% year-on-year in June to 116.928 units despite aggressive discounts by all manufacturers present in the country, keeping in mind June 2019 was already down a stiff -17.6% on the same month in 2018. This pulls the year-to-date tally down -47.5% to 807.144, the worst First Half volume in India in 14 years: since 2006 (751.228). If the nationwide lockdown was technically still in effect for the entire month in containment zones, many inhabitants were forced to resume work in order to earn a living and in any case services and businesses have resumed starting June 8 in non-containment zones. Perhaps because of this reopening just as the pandemic was worsening, June is the month the Covid-19 pandemic spun out of control in India, with daily cases and lives lost flaring up exponentially through the month (see graph below by John Hopkins University). Total cases have risen from 42.836 in early May to 216.314 in early June and 604.641 today, while lives lost have gone from 1.389 to 6.087 and 18.213 over the same period, ranking 4th globally below Brazil, the U.S. and Mexico. Our 2020 Indian forecast is back to where it was 40 days ago: at 1.93 million (-35%) which would be the lowest annual result since 2009.
Coronavirus daily cases in India – Source John Hopkins University.
Local behemoth Maruti (-53.8%) is once again in great difficulty, dropping faster than the market to just 43.9% share vs. 51.4% so far in 2020. Hyundai (-49.2%) also falls slightly faster but its loss is more contained, resulting in a strong 18.2% share to be compared with 16.9% YTD. Renault (-14.2%) and Tata (-14.5%) manage fantastic holds in the Top 6 thanks to new launches as we’ll see further down, while newcomer Kia edges back into the Top 5 at #5 overall with almost 7.300 units bring its total since launch to 94.107 units in less than a year, still and by very far the most successful brand launch in Indian automotive history. After a stellar month of April at 10.2% share, Mahindra (-55.2%) falls back to earth at 6.8% in June, with Volkswagen (-38.7%) resisting ok but Toyota (-63.5%) and Ford (-50.5%) freefalling again. Other newcomer MG is back above 2.000 monthly wholesales, now adding up to just under 25.000 units in exactly one year since launch, a considerable achievement with essentially one Baojun SUV, the 530 rebadged MG Hector for India.
First podium finish for the Kia Seltos in India.
After becoming the first non-Maruti to rank #1 in India in 35 years and the very first Hyundai to do so, the Creta (-13.5%) misses out on repeating this historical exploit by just 91 units and ranks #2 below the Maruti Alto (-61%), the latter also recuperating the YTD top spot in the process. The Kia Seltos leaps up 3 spots to break into the Indian podium for the very first time at #3, obviously becoming the first Kia to rank that high as well. Be sure to check out our Kia Seltos Test Drive here. The Maruti Wagon R (-31.8%) resists relatively well and rallies back up 8 spots on May to #4 which matches its YTD raking while the Maruti DZire (-60.8%) rounds out the Top 5 but is struggling. The Maruti Celerio (-14.9%) vastly outpaces the market to #8 while the Tata Tiago (-26.5%) returns inside the Top 10 for the third time in its career at #10 after January 2018 and February 2019. There are 5 additional recent launches in the June Top 30: the Maruti S-Presso (#16), Tata Altroz (#17), Renault Triber (#23), MG Hector (#24) and Maruti XL6 (#30).
Full June 2020 Top XX All India-made brands and Top 85 All-models below.