Germany October 2021: Market collapses -34.9%, VW T-Roc ends 30 years of VW Golf domination

Shock: the VW T-Roc is the best-selling vehicle in Germany in October.

The German new car market collapses -34.9% year-on-year in October to just 178.683 registrations, leading to a year-to-date tally now down -5.2% to 2.196.244 units. As a result we have revised our 2021 Forecast for Germany down from 2.79 million to 2.68 million units (-8%), which would be the lowest annual German volume in 36 years: since 1985 (2.38m). Volkswagen (-40.2%) sinks to 15.8% share, a smidge higher than in September (15.7%) but still at historically low levels compared with 19.2% so far this year. Mercedes (-45%) fares even worse year-on-year but achieves a 10.1% share, a lot better than its YTD level of 8.4%. BMW (-16.2%) resists a lot better yet is toppled from the 2nd spot it reached last month, hitting 9.8% share which is its highest since April 2020 (10.3%). Opel (-27.6%) remains in 4th place ahead of Ford (-39.9%) and Audi (-57.7%) both struggling. Kia (-7.1%) posts the best hold in the Top 10, with Hyundai (-22.6%) also doing ok but Skoda (-55.3%) and Renault (-43.2%) in dire straits. Further down, Tesla (+482.9%) sports another surreal year-on-year gain but is down 14 spots to #24, with Lada (+405%), Alpine (+150%) Maserati (+110.5%), Polestar (+84.7%), Cupra (+72.2%), Smart (+13%), Mitsubishi (+5.9%), Subaru (+5.8%) and Jeep (4.5%) among the additional year-on-year gainers.

Over in the models ranking, after the Tesla Model 3 missed the top spot by only 58 sales in September, we have another, bigger earthquake this month. For the first time in almost 30 years – since March 1992 when the Opel Astra was #1, the VW Golf isn’t the best-selling vehicle at home in Germany. We however estimated that in January 2006 the VW Passat was unofficially #1 in Germany if VW Golf and Golf Plus sales were separated, which would still amount to over 15 years of consecutive monthly domination. The #1 this month is the VW T-Roc (-17.4%) with 2.5% share as the Golf (-66%) implodes to its lowest ever market share at home by far: 2.2% due to production interruptions linked with the microchip crisis. The Golf’s previous lowest was 3.5% last month. This overthrowing of a decades-long leader is likely to remain a quirk of these Covid-affected times, unless demand for the Golf continues to fall over the next few months and years.

In complete contrast, the VW T-Cross (+67.8%) surges to third place, smashing its ranking record with a previous best of #10 in July 2021. The Ford Focus (-33.2%) is back up 17 spots on September to #4 vs. #35 year-to-date, while the Opel Corsa (-52.9%) freefalls but only drops two ranks on last month to #5. The Mitsubishi Space Star (+79.5%) also goes against the negative grain to break into the German Top 10 at #9 for the first time since May 2020 when it ranked #9 also. The Opel Mokka slips outside the Top 10 to #11, which is still the nameplate’s second best ranking below the #9 hit last month. The Kia Ceed (+3.6%) edges up to #14 overall (sales include the Xceed and ProCeed), the Smart Fortwo (+18.9%) is up 20 spots to #19 and the VW ID.3 (-19%) down nine to #20. Other successful recent launches include the Skoda Enyaq (#32) and Hyundai Ioniq 5 (#58). Finally, this month we welcome the VW Taigo, a T-Cross coupe, at #256 with 26 sales.

Previous month: Germany September 2021: Tesla Model 3 only 58 sales below VW Golf, market down -25.7%

One year ago: Germany October 2020: Renault Zoe soars to record #7, VW Golf down -41.1%, sales back in negative (-3.6%)

Full October 2021 Top 50 All-brands and Top 305 All-models below.