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Sweden Full Year 2019: Last minute surge edges market up 0.6%, Volvo S/V60 snaps first lead

The Volvo S/V60 scores its first ever annual win at home.

Consult 70 years of Swedish Historical Data here

As predicted, 2019 ended on an artificial high in Sweden with December sales up 107.8% year-on-year to 47.797 which is the largest December volume in Swedish history. The one and only reason behind the surge: a change in the bonus/malus tax system calculation which from 1st January 2020 is based on WLTP scores and not NEDC. This means large and AWD-cars will see their price hike in January and therefore have been registered en masse in December. As such, Opel (+591.7%), Subaru (+514.3%), Hyundai (+394.5%), Nissan (+323.1%) up to #5 vs. #13 YTD, Mazda (+317.1%), Peugeot (+230.8%) as well as market leaders Volvo (+125.8%) and Volkswagen (+148.5%) all post extravagant gains in December. Tesla (+497.1%) also, but this is due to the arrival of the Model 3. The Volvo XC40 breaks its volume and share records at 1.722 and 3.6%, its first time sporting a five-digit monthly figure at home.

Bil Sweden prediction for electrified share in Sweden 2020-2021

This has triggered the reverse situation from 2018 when a dismal H2 pulled the annual result into negative. This year, whereas halfway through the year Swedish sales were down an abysmal -25.6%, pulled-forward sales in the second half of the year in anticipation of the 2020 tax increase mean the annual volume actually edges up 0.6% to 355.704. This is the third largest annual score in Swedish history below 2017 (379.393) and 2016 (372.318). Sales of electrified vehicles (EVs and PHEVs) are up 42% to 40.016 units or 11.2% share vs. 8% in 2018. The new bonus/malus tax system is engineered to favour sales of electrified vehicles and according to Bil Sweden, these should account for a whopping 30% of a weakened market in 2020 down 7% to 330.000, 40% in 2021 and 80% in 2030. B

First annual Top 10 for the Kia Niro.

If the Top 5 brands remain unchanged on 2018, they evolve in very different ways. Market leaders Volvo (-6.7%) and Volkswagen (-8.5%) both lose over one percentage point of market share to 18.4% and 13.8% respectively, but Kia (+10.4%) shines with the only double-digit gain in the Top 5, distancing Toyota (+5%) and BMW (+4.6%) both also outpacing the market. Below, Audi (+14%) overtakes Mercedes (+2.9%) to #6 ahead of Skoda (+5.2%), Renault (-10.6%) struggles and Peugeot (-8%) takes advantage of Nissan’s freefall (-15.3%) to stop inside the Top 10 despite a steep fall. Tesla (+404.4%) breaks into the Swedish annual Top 20 at #16, with Jaguar (+83.8%), Land Rover (+61.8%), Mitsubishi (+42%), Lexus (+39%), Hyundai (+38.5%), Seat (+32.9%), Porsche (+24.1%), Mazda (+18.4%) and Mini (+15.8%) also posting stunning gains in the remainder of the Top 30.

Model-wise, we have a new and first-time #1 for the 4th consecutive year, with the Volvo S/V60 (+41.2%) now benefitting fully from the its new generation to end the year a comfortable leader, almost 8.500 sales above last year’s winner the Volvo S/V90 (-39.6%). This brings to an end the very tumultuous replacement of the Volvo V70, market leader for 19 straight years between 1997 and 2015 but discontinued in 2016, which enabled the the VW Golf to take the annual lead that year. After a pushy start in 2017, the V70’s official replacement, the S/V90, led the way in 2018 thanks to a bare-bones variant of the V90, but Swedish customers couldn’t resist the appeal of the (much) cheaper V60 station wagon this year. Below the VW Golf (-16.8%) patiently awaiting the new generation, the Volvo XC60 (-0.4%) and VW Tiguan (+18.7%) both edge up one spot to round out the Top 5, knocking the VW Passat (-34.7%) out.

The Mitsubishi Outlander PHEV is the #1 electrified vehicle in Sweden in 2019.

Kia flexes its muscles, with the Niro (+45.9%) breaking into the Swedish Top 10 for the first time at #7 and the Cee’d (+30.3%) scoring its first Top 10 finish since 2016. The Volvo XC40 (+23%) only gain one spot and will count on an electrified variant to boost its sales in 2020. Just outside the Top 10, the Toyota Corolla is the most popular “newcomer” at #11 even though this is not an unknown nameplate and it simply replaces the Auris. The Tesla Model 3 (#22), VW T-Cross (#27), Hyundai Kona (#59), Seat Tarraco (#82) and Mazda CX-30 (#99) follow. Among them, the Model 3 (#5 in March), Corolla (#6 in June and July) and T-Cross (#7 in August) have already had a taste of the monthly top of the ranking. In the electrified segment, the entire ranking is reshuffled: the Mitsubishi Outlander PHEV (+66.9%) is the new best-seller vs. #3 in 2018, the Tesla Model 3 lands directly at #2 and the Kia Niro PHEV (+25%) steps onto the podium, whereas last year’s best-sellers, the VW Passat GTE (-46.7%) and Kia Optima PHEV (+8.5%) now feature at the tail end of the Top 5. The Kia Niro EV is up 14-fold on last year and misses out on the Top 10 for just 3 sales.

Previous month: Sweden November 2019: VW threatens Volvo for #1, Passat back up to #2 in market up 18.2%

Previous year: Sweden 2018: First annual win for Volvo S/V90, H2 freefall pulls market down 6.8%

Two years ago: Sweden 2017: Volvo reclaims #1 models spot with old gen XC60

Full Year 2019 Top 53 All-brands, Top 335 All-models and Top 20 electrified models vs. Full Year 2018 figures below.

Full December 2019 Top 40 All-brands and Top 250 All-models below.

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