USA November 2019: Honda (+12.2%), Kia (+12%), Mercedes (+13.3%) and record incentives help market edge up 1%

Honda US light truck sales shoot up 18% year-on-year in November.

After two straight months of decline, US new light vehicle sales are estimated to edge up 1% year-on-year in November to 1.409.296, leading to a year-to-date tally down -1.1%0 to 15.526.005 and a 17 million year still in the realm of possibles. The Seasonally Adjusted, Annualised Rate of sales (SAAR) is forecast to come in at 17.2 million, a 3.9% rebound from October’s 16.55m but down -1.7% on the 17.5m of November 2018. The SAAR has topped 17 million during 6 months so far in 2019. Light trucks, including pickups, crossovers and SUVs accounted for 72.7% of new vehicle retail sales through November 17, the highest level ever for the month of November (Source J.D. Power and LMC). Fleet sales are down -3.5% to 261.800 or 18% share vs. 19% a year ago. According to J.D. Power and LMC, average incentive spending shoots up 12% year-on-year to $4.538 per vehicle, the first time it tops $4.500 in 2019. In the detail, cars are up $454 to $4.185, and trucks up $503 to $4.658. ALG has incentives up a much more contained 1.2% to $3.759, the most generous being the Detroit 3, Daimler, BMW and Nissan (see table below). According to all 3 sources, the increase in incentive spending is driven by record levels of older-model vehicles still lingering on dealer lots, while discounts on 2020 model-year vehicle average $3.723, up 13% on November 2018 (Source J.D. Power and LMC). In turn, Kelley Blue Book says the average transaction price for new vehicles in the US in November is $38.393, up 1% year-on-year and up $106 on last month. Note GM, Ford and FCA do not report monthly sales anymore, only quarterly, but we will continue to share with you our exclusive brands and models estimates. As such, all GM, Ford and FCA as well as Tesla brands and models November data in this article are estimates.

In the groups ranking, General Motors (-5.5%) is estimated to drop significantly as its fleet activity and some retail were disrupted by factory closures linked to the UAW strike. All Detroit 3 are down, with Ford (-2.7%) and FCA (-3.5%) also estimated to skid this month. In contrast, Toyota Motor shoots up 9.2% with both light trucks (+11%) and cars (+6.2%) in positive, a very rare feat these days. The same goes for American Honda (+11.1%), with light trucks up 18% and cars up 2.2%. Hyundai-Kia (+10.4%) is also extremely dynamic with Kia (+12%) scoring its 4th double-digit gain of the year and Hyundai (+6.2%) posting a 15th gain in past 16 months thanks to 19% increase in retail deliveries while fleet sales crumble -33%. The sky remains dark for Nissan Motor/Mitsubishi (-14.4%) as the company continues to scale back on fleet shipments and incentives to shore up retail volume and profits. The VW Group (+13.6%), Daimler AG (+13%) and the BMW Group (+7.6%) all post very sturdy results. Brand-wise, Ford (-2.8%) leads above Toyota (+8.4%), Chevrolet (-3.4%) and Honda (+12.2%), with Audi (+20.7%), Mazda (+18%), Volvo (+17.8%), Lexus (+13.8%), Mercedes (+13.3%), Kia (+12%), Porsche (+11.5%), Land Rover (+11.3%) and BMW (+10.2%) also posting outstanding results further down.

The Top 5 best-selling models in the US in November remain unchanged on last month and year-to-date: the Ford F-Series (-2.7%) tops the charts above the Ram Pickup (-3.4%) and Chevrolet Silverado (-0.8%) for a podium 100% pickup trucks, followed by the Toyota RAV4 (+26.4%) and Honda CR-V (+7.9%). The Toyota Camry (+4.3%) is once again the best-selling car in the country with the Toyota Corolla (+17.3%) and Honda Civic (+8.2%) also making their way into the Top 10 while both the Chevrolet Equinox (-22.7%) and Nissan Rogue (-25.5%) are in doldrums. Strong performances of the Honda HR-V (+123.1%), Nissan Altima (+37%), Mazda CX-5 (+29.9%), VW Tiguan (+18.9%), Kia Sportage (+17.3%), Lexus RX (+12.5%) and Toyota Tacoma (+5.3%) in the remainder of the Top 50. The Kia Telluride (#60) continues to dominate recent launches (<12 months) with a new record volume, with the Chevrolet Blazer (#66) estimated to come 2nd ahead of the Jeep Gladiator (#77), Hyundai Palisade (#85) and Honda Passport (#103). This month we welcome the Hyundai Venue at #237 and the Mazda CX-30 at #273.

Previous month: USA October 2019: Hyundai-Kia (+11%), Honda (+8.2%) shine in market down -1.6%, on track for 17m year

One year ago: USA November 2018: Ram soars 43.5%, lifts FCA up 16.8% in market down -0.3%

Full November 2019 Top 15 groups, Top 40 All-brands and Top 282 All-models below.