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Canada September 2019: Jeep (+21%), Ram (+16.8%), Kia (+15.3%) can’t help market back into negative (-4.1%)

Jeep sales surge 21% year-on-year in a declining market.

After edging up 0.2% in August according to our estimates, the Canadian new light vehicle market falls back into negative for the 18th time in the past 19 months in September at -4.1% to 167.548 units, pulling the year-to-date tally down -3.8% to 1.513.303. According to Desrosiers Automotive whose totals are slightly different due to the exclusion of small brands such as Tesla and different GM and FCA estimates, passenger cars continue to implode at -18% year-on-year in September to just 40.401 and 24.3% share vs. 28.5% a year ago and now down -15.6% YTD to 391.844 and 26.1% vs. 29.7%. Light trucks on the other hand gain 1.9% to 126.087 and 75.7% share vs. 71.5% in September 2018 and edge up 0.7% YTD to 1.109.500 and 73.9% vs. 70.3% over the same period in 2018. Since July, FCA is following General Motors in abandoning monthly sales reporting for Canada and Ford has just announced it will follow through from October onwards. As we have done for the past few month in the US, we have combined industry estimates for overall FCA and GM August sales and are sharing our exclusive monthly estimates for all FCA and GM brands and models. Note all YTD figures are actuals as FCA and GM do report quarterly sales.

Ram is up 16.8% in Canada in September.

Below Ford Motor (-4.2%), General Motors (-7.6%) and Toyota Motor (-3.4%) all in negative, Hyundai-Kia (+6.3%) stands out thanks to a 15.3% surge at Kia and more modest 2.1% at Hyundai, and no other Top 10 group manages a year-on-year gain in September: FCA limits its fall to -1% thanks to Jeep (+21.8%) and Ram (+16.8%) who however fail to compensate for paltry scores at Dodge (-47%), Chrysler (-45.9%), Fiat (-28.3%) and Alfa Romeo (-22.4%). Nissan/Mitsubishi (-9.9%), Honda Motor (-3.4%) and the Volkswagen Group (-2.9%) all return a negative scorecard. Brand-wise, on top of the aforementioned badges, similarly to the U.S. most luxury fares seem unaffected by the slump: McLaren (+150%), Lexus (+21%), Volvo (+12%), Bentley (+11.1%), Rolls Royce (+11.1%), Acura (+10.7%), Lincoln (+9.5%), Land Rover (+7.1%), Lamborghini (+5.6%), Audi (+5.3%), Mercedes (+4.8%), Porsche (+4%) and Genesis (+1.5%) all swim upstream with year-on-year gains in September, joined by Mitsubishi (+15.5%), a lonely in-shape mass market brand.

The new Telluride helps Kia deliveries up 15.3%.

In the models ranking, the Ford F-Series (-1.7%) easily keeps the pole position ahead of the Ram Pickup (+18.5%) and Toyota RAV4 (+8.8%) both in outstanding shape. The Honda Civic (-12.6%), Honda CR-V (-0.1%) and GMC Sierra (-5.6%) are all down while the Nissan Rogue (+3.6%) and Chevrolet Silverado (+1.9%) post the only additional gains in the Top 10. Further down, the Honda HR-V (+149.2%), Nissan Kicks (+112.2%), Jeep Grand Cherokee (+73.7%), Hyundai Kona (+54%), Jeep Wrangler (+30.9%), Kia Forte (+29.1%), Mitsubishi Outlander (+27.9%) and Subaru Crosstrek (+20.3%) impress. The Ford Ranger (#55) tops new launches above the Hyundai Palisade (#67), Chevrolet Blazer (#99), Jeep Gladiator (#102) and Mercedes A-Class (#103).

Previous month: Canada August 2019: Light trucks hit record 76.8% share, Ram (+15.6%), Toyota (+10.4%) lift market to first gain in 18 months (+0.2%)

One year ago: Canada September 2018: Jeep, Subaru deft steepest decline this decade

Full September 2019 Top 15 groups, Top 40 brands and Top 290 All-models below.

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