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Australia: My forecast for 2013

I predict the Toyota Corolla will be the best-selling car in Australia in 2013.

* See my forecast for the Top 10 best-selling models by clicking on the title! *

This forecast is brought to you by Platinum Direct Car Allowance

Given I live in the country and can track very closely the evolution of the new car market here, I thought I would give you my forecast for the Top 10 best-sellers in Australia in 2013. Firstly I anticipate the market to continue on its trend upwards, but less so than in 2012 with a 5% gain to a record 1.16 million registrations. As November 2012 figures have started to show, Toyota has got it right with its new gen Corolla and I forecast 2013 to (finally) be the year of the Toyota Corolla. I see the Japanese superstar model’s sales go up 17% next year to 46,000 units and 4.2% share. This should be enough to snap the pole position away from the Mazda3, which I see coming down to #2 but with sales still up 5% at 45,000 and 4.1% thanks to a new model coming in halfway through the year.

Hyundai i30

Toyota Australia Executive Director of Sales & Marketing Matthew Callachor told me at the Sydney Motor Show last October that production constraints would prevent the Toyota Hilux to finish 2012 at #1. This will most likely turn out to be true, and I see the Hilux benefitting from an increased Thailand supply and gain 7% in 2013 to rank #3 with 43,500 units and 3.9% share. The new generation Hyundai i30 launched in Australia whereas the previous gen wasn’t even ‘tired’ yet and as a consequence I predict the model will have a solid year in 2013, up 6% and 2 spots to #4 with 30,000 sales.

Ford Ranger

Holden will launch a new Commodore in 2013 which is always a very significant event for the Australian motor industry. In 2012, the Commodore has dropped by a worrying 24% to #4 so far and I think the new model will slow down its fall to around -10%. This means it may drop to #6 below the Toyota Camry which would become the country’s best-selling locally produced model at year-end for the first time in history. However the race will be very tight between these 2 models and the Holden Cruze so it could be anyone’s game really. Finally I see the Ford Ranger build on a great end of 2012 to go up by 30% to #8 and 2nd best-selling ute behind the Hilux.

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Previous post: Australia November 2012: Now with Top 20 best-selling brands

November post: Australia November 2012: New generation pushes Toyota Corolla to #1

Check out also: Australia: Could 2013 be the year of the Toyota Corolla?

Full Year 2013 Top 10 Ranking Table Forecast below.

Australia Full Year 2013 – forecast:

PosModel2013(f)%/122012(e)%Pos
1Toyota Corolla46,0004.2%17%39,2563.5%3
2Mazda345,0004.1%5%42,9293.9%1
3Toyota Hilux43,5003.9%7%40,5263.7%2
4Hyundai i3030,0002.7%6%28,3982.6%6
5Toyota Camry28,0002.5%7%26,2442.4%7
6Holden Commodore27,7002.5%-10%30,7342.8%4
7Holden Cruze27,0002.4%-8%29,2572.6%5
8Ford Ranger24,2002.2%30%18,5591.7%10
9Nissan Navara22,5002.0%-11%25,1542.3%8
10Ford Focus19,5001.8%7%18,2711.7%11

(f): BSCB’s Forecast

(e): BSCB’s Estimate

Source: BestSellingCarsBlog

Note: The Platinum Direct links in this post are sponsored.

This Post Has 5 Comments
  1. @Jack

    I don’t think so. Toyota themselves said in a statement that they predict Corolla will sell only 35,000 in 2013, and will likely be outsold by Hilux. Mazda3 beat Corolla in December despite Corolla having an all-new hatch. I don’t see Hilux being number 1 either because there are too many newer competitors eating away at it’s share.

  2. At Sportsbet you can currently get $6 on the Corolla winning the 2013 sales. Mazda3 is $2.20 and Hilux is $2.25. It looks like they just threw the 2012 figures into a computer.

  3. I think you overlooked the Nissan Pulsar. The nameplate was really successful back in the day and the upcoming ones (hatch and sedan) aren’t bad cars either.

  4. Pretty good predictions – most of them I would agree with. I think Colorado may enter the top 10 next year based on it’s sales in the last few months (it outsold Focus last month). Remember that next year is a federal election year and they say that this has a negative impact on car sales, although in 2007 it didn’t, as that was a record year. Even so, I think 1.16 million next year is overly optimistic – that kind of growth isn’t really sustainable. I would say 1.14 best case, 1.11 most likely.

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