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Australia: My forecast for 2013

I predict the Toyota Corolla will be the best-selling car in Australia in 2013.

* See my forecast for the Top 10 best-selling models by clicking on the title! *

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Given I live in the country and can track very closely the evolution of the new car market here, I thought I would give you my forecast for the Top 10 best-sellers in Australia in 2013. Firstly I anticipate the market to continue on its trend upwards, but less so than in 2012 with a 5% gain to a record 1.16 million registrations. As November 2012 figures have started to show, Toyota has got it right with its new gen Corolla and I forecast 2013 to (finally) be the year of the Toyota Corolla. I see the Japanese superstar model's sales go up 17% next year to 46,000 units and 4.2% share. This should be enough to snap the pole position away from the Mazda3, which I see coming down to #2 but with sales still up 5% at 45,000 and 4.1% thanks to a new model coming in halfway through the year.

Hyundai i30

Toyota Australia Executive Director of Sales & Marketing Matthew Callachor told me at the Sydney Motor Show last October that production constraints would prevent the Toyota Hilux to finish 2012 at #1. This will most likely turn out to be true, and I see the Hilux benefitting from an increased Thailand supply and gain 7% in 2013 to rank #3 with 43,500 units and 3.9% share. The new generation Hyundai i30 launched in Australia whereas the previous gen wasn't even 'tired' yet and as a consequence I predict the model will have a solid year in 2013, up 6% and 2 spots to #4 with 30,000 sales.

Ford Ranger

Holden will launch a new Commodore in 2013 which is always a very significant event for the Australian motor industry. In 2012, the Commodore has dropped by a worrying 24% to #4 so far and I think the new model will slow down its fall to around -10%. This means it may drop to #6 below the Toyota Camry which would become the country's best-selling locally produced model at year-end for the first time in history. However the race will be very tight between these 2 models and the Holden Cruze so it could be anyone's game really. Finally I see the Ford Ranger build on a great end of 2012 to go up by 30% to #8 and 2nd best-selling ute behind the Hilux.

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Previous post: Australia November 2012: Now with Top 20 best-selling brands

November post: Australia November 2012: New generation pushes Toyota Corolla to #1

Check out also: Australia: Could 2013 be the year of the Toyota Corolla?

Full Year 2013 Top 10 Ranking Table Forecast below.

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Categories: Australia
  1. David
    January 11th, 2013 at 13:29 | #1

    @Jack

    I don’t think so. Toyota themselves said in a statement that they predict Corolla will sell only 35,000 in 2013, and will likely be outsold by Hilux. Mazda3 beat Corolla in December despite Corolla having an all-new hatch. I don’t see Hilux being number 1 either because there are too many newer competitors eating away at it’s share.

  2. Jack
    January 9th, 2013 at 17:49 | #2

    At Sportsbet you can currently get $6 on the Corolla winning the 2013 sales. Mazda3 is $2.20 and Hilux is $2.25. It looks like they just threw the 2012 figures into a computer.

  3. fcas
    December 15th, 2012 at 02:19 | #3

    I think you overlooked the Nissan Pulsar. The nameplate was really successful back in the day and the upcoming ones (hatch and sedan) aren’t bad cars either.

  4. Anthony
    December 14th, 2012 at 16:15 | #4

    Also dont forget the Nissan Pulsar. Nissan is going to be very aggressive with it.

  5. David
    December 14th, 2012 at 14:09 | #5

    Pretty good predictions – most of them I would agree with. I think Colorado may enter the top 10 next year based on it’s sales in the last few months (it outsold Focus last month). Remember that next year is a federal election year and they say that this has a negative impact on car sales, although in 2007 it didn’t, as that was a record year. Even so, I think 1.16 million next year is overly optimistic – that kind of growth isn’t really sustainable. I would say 1.14 best case, 1.11 most likely.

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