Australia: My forecast for 2013
* See my forecast for the Top 10 best-selling models by clicking on the title! *
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Given I live in the country and can track very closely the evolution of the new car market here, I thought I would give you my forecast for the Top 10 best-sellers in Australia in 2013. Firstly I anticipate the market to continue on its trend upwards, but less so than in 2012 with a 5% gain to a record 1.16 million registrations. As November 2012 figures have started to show, Toyota has got it right with its new gen Corolla and I forecast 2013 to (finally) be the year of the Toyota Corolla. I see the Japanese superstar model's sales go up 17% next year to 46,000 units and 4.2% share. This should be enough to snap the pole position away from the Mazda3, which I see coming down to #2 but with sales still up 5% at 45,000 and 4.1% thanks to a new model coming in halfway through the year.
Toyota Australia Executive Director of Sales & Marketing Matthew Callachor told me at the Sydney Motor Show last October that production constraints would prevent the Toyota Hilux to finish 2012 at #1. This will most likely turn out to be true, and I see the Hilux benefitting from an increased Thailand supply and gain 7% in 2013 to rank #3 with 43,500 units and 3.9% share. The new generation Hyundai i30 launched in Australia whereas the previous gen wasn't even 'tired' yet and as a consequence I predict the model will have a solid year in 2013, up 6% and 2 spots to #4 with 30,000 sales.
Holden will launch a new Commodore in 2013 which is always a very significant event for the Australian motor industry. In 2012, the Commodore has dropped by a worrying 24% to #4 so far and I think the new model will slow down its fall to around -10%. This means it may drop to #6 below the Toyota Camry which would become the country's best-selling locally produced model at year-end for the first time in history. However the race will be very tight between these 2 models and the Holden Cruze so it could be anyone's game really. Finally I see the Ford Ranger build on a great end of 2012 to go up by 30% to #8 and 2nd best-selling ute behind the Hilux.
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Full Year 2013 Top 10 Ranking Table Forecast below.