USA November 2021: Ford (+7.5%) ignores market off -16%

The new Ford Bronco helps Ford stay in positive in November.

According to LMC Automotive, the U.S. new light vehicle market is stuck at -16% for November at roughly 1.04 million units (like in October), leading to a year-to-date tally up 6.6% to 13,852,000 units. We are now forecasting a 2021 Full Year volume at +5% and 15.29 million units. The Seasonally Adjusted Annualised Rate of sales remains unchanged on last month at 13.1 million units vs 16.1 million a year ago, showing a stagnating market in the current microchip crisis context, but a potential bottoming out after falling to a low of 12.4 million in September. According to J.D. Power and LMC Automotive, retail inventory remains below 1 million units for the fourth consecutive month. Tight supply means lower incentives, down -56% to just $1,612 according to J.D. Power and down 50% to $1,888 according to TrueCar. Also according to TrueCar, the average transaction price is up 8.6% year-on-year and 1.9% on October to $41,139. The manufacturers that have increased their average transaction price the most year-on-year are General Motors up 16% to $49,951, Stellantis up 12.9% to $49,823, Kia up 12.8% to $31,386, Hyundai up 11.4% to $33,861 and Nissan up 11.3% to $32,079.

Ford Motor (+5.8%) is the best-selling group in the U.S. for the third month in a row and the only group in positive this month (at least among those still reporting sales monthly). The last time Ford had such a streak as the #1 group in the U.S. was in 1974. Toyota Motor (-25.4%) falls much faster than the market and has now posted declines of 22% or more for three months in a row. Hyundai-Kia (-9%) resists but American Honda (-17.1%) struggles. Brand-wise, Ford (+7.5%) remains in the lead above Toyota (-24.3%). Toyota cars freefall -47% and the carmaker says it has 116,638 vehicles in inventory (an 18-day supply), down 67% on one year ago. Honda (-16.6%) sees cars drop -24% and light trucks off -13%. Kia (-5.4%) is relatively solid and sold 77% of its available U.S. inventory in November. Hyundai (-19.6%) has just 17,096 vehicle in its inventory at end-November, down from 145,885 a year ago. Subaru (-34.5%) endures the steepest fall of all brands reporting sales this month and is on track to post back-to-back annual declines for the first time since the 1990s. Mazda (-5.3%) resists while Genesis (+435%) continues to spectacularly gear up.

As for models, the Ford F-Series (+14.6%) is in outstanding shape despite production disruptions, while the Toyota RAV4 (-13.8%) manages to keep its loss below the market rate, as do the Toyota Highlander (-12.5%), Ford Explorer (-3.1%) and Honda Accord (-3.9%). In contrast, the Honda CR-V (-19.3%), Toyota Tacoma (-20.7%), Camry (-34.4%) and Corolla (-62.9%) are in difficulty. The Ford Bronco Sport is up to 11,486 sales, while the Honda HR-V is up 59.8% year-on-year. Notice also the Toyota Corolla Cross at 2,877 units and the Ford Maverick at 2,582.

Previous month: USA October 2021: Ford (-3.3%) back above Toyota (-30.6%) in market off -23%

One year ago: USA November 2020: Calendar quirk, tight supply send market down -12%, Toyota stable

Full November 2021 data for selected groups, brands and models below.