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Australia October 2021: Market down -8.1% to lowest October in 19 years, Ford Ranger repeats at #1

The Ford Ranger has now ranked #1 four times in 2021, a record.

5/11 update: Now with Top 272 All-models ranking.

After 11 consecutive months of year-on-year gains, the microchip crisis has finally caught up with the Australian new vehicle market in October. Sales are down -8.1% year-on-year to 74.650 units which is the lowest October volume since 2002. The year-to-date tally however remains well up at +22.7% to 890.790 registrations, on track to pass the million unit mark before the end of the year: our Full Year 2021 Forecast is now down to 1.07 million units (+16%) vs. 1.09 million a month ago. SUVs unusually underperform at -14.3% to 35.343 units and 47.3% share vs. 50.8% a year ago, light commercials (mainly pickup trucks and vans) edge up 1% to 19.344 and 25.9% share vs. 23.6% in October 2020 and passenger cars lose -10.3% to 15.952 and 21.4% share vs. 21.9% last year.

Looking at sales by State, New South Wales is down -12.2% to 24.380, Victoria up 6.3% to 18.701 as it was still in lockdown a year ago, Queensland off -10.3% to 16.159, Western Australia down -15.4% to 7.386, South Australia down -11.9% to 4.948, Tasmania down -1.6% to 1.321, Australian Capital Territory down -22.3% to 1.113 and Northern Territory down -12.4% to 642. Private sales resist well at -5.9% to 36.856 units, while business fleets crater at -19.2% to 27.142, rental fleets recover up 68.9% to 4.290 and government sales drop -18% to 2.351. Looking at the provenance of cars sold in Australia this month, Japan is down -27% to 21.617, Thailand down -3.3% to 16.729, South Korea down -1.6% to 11.354 while China continues to defy the market dynamics, up 177.9% to 6.435 and the U.S. is up 345.1% to 3.221.

In the brands ranking, Toyota (-21.1%) suffers but easily remains on top with 20.6% share vs. 21.6% so far this year. After six months spent outside the Australian podium, Hyundai (+2.8%) delivers the only year-on-year gain in the Top 7 and climbs to 2nd place overall for the first time since October 2019. Ford (-4.9%) loses less ground than the market and repeats at #3 while Mazda (-30.5%) pays the price for constrained supply and drops two spots on last month to #4. Below, Kia (-8.5%) roughly match the market while Mitsubishi (-6.8%) and Nissan (-4%) do a little better. MG (+86.7%) continues to deliver stellar results month after month, breaking its market share record at 4.2% and equally its best ranking at #8 also hit last June. Volkswagen (-6.4%) and Subaru (-5.7%) round out the Top 10 as they keep their fall to below the market rate. Further down, GWM (+304.8%), Ssangyong (+93.5%), Fiat (+72.5%), LDV (+10%), Isuzu (+5%) and Peugeot (+1.7%) shine with year-on-year upticks.

Model-wise, the Ford Ranger (-1.9%) repeats at #1 for the first time, delivering its fourth win of the year after April, June and September. 2021, although the last year for this generation of the model, is turning out to be the Ranger’s best year as it had only ranked #1 twice beforehand: in September 2017 and September 2020. The Ranger outclasses its archenemy the Toyota Hilux (-10.9%) but remains 2nd year-to-date, albeit reducing its gap with the Hilux to 3.066 units. Bar a complete collapse of the Hilux over the last two months of the year, this might end up being too much of a gap to fill for the Ranger to end 2021 as #1. Note the Ranger 4×4 sells 3.841 units this month vs. just 2.760 for the Hilux 4×4.

Illustrating the current domination of these two pickups on the Australian market, the #3 vehicle, the Toyota Corolla (+2.4%) sells less than half at just 2.7% share. It distances a very dynamic Hyundai i30 (+36%) and the Isuzu D-Max (-12.3%). The Toyota RAV4 (-59.1%) is in freefall but remains the best-selling SUV in the country ahead of the Hyundai Tucson (-8.7%), Mitsubishi ASX (+30.8%) and Nissan X-Trail (+10.7%). Notice also the Toyota Land Cruiser PU/CC (+70.8%) up to #12, its highest ranking since April 2020 (#11), the MG3 (+45.5%) ranking at a record #14 and the Toyota Kluger (+158.6%), Subaru Outback (+138.6%), Mazda BT-50 (+164.4%), MG ZS (+111%) and MG HS (+170.1% – breaking into the Top 25 for the first time) all more than doubling their sales year-on-year.

Previous month: Australia September 2021: Market up 20.8%, Ford Ranger leads, Mazda BT-50 in Top 10

One year ago: Australia October 2020: Toyota Prado up to #4, Isuzu D-Max up to #6 in fast recovering market (-1.5%)

Full October 2021 Top 45 All-brands and Top 272 All-models below.

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