UK May 2020: Extended health crisis stifles sales down -89% to lowest May since 1952

The Volvo XC40 scores its very first UK Top 10 finish at #6.

20/07 update: Now with Top 160 YTD models and Top 100 May models.

As we anticipated last month, May was the month the UK became the country most affected by the coronavirus pandemic in Europe, with 281.270 confirmed cases and 39.987 deaths at the time of writing. A month ago I wrote the late lockdown (March 23) meant the “easing of restrictions would only be progressive throughout May at best, indicating the car market won’t realistically recover until June at the earliest.” It ended up being a little worse in fact, as car dealerships weren’t allowed to reopen at any time in May and are only doing so as we speak (w/c June 1) in England after more than two months of lost trading. However car showrooms remain closed in Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland (until next week). As a result, UK new car sales, after stalling at -97.3% in April, aren’t in a much better situation in May at -89% year-on-year to 20.247 units which is the worst performance of any European country we have covered so far. 2020 marks the lowest May volume in 68 years: since 1952 (14.466). The year-to-date tally is now down -51.4% to 508.125. Despite this, the SMMT hasn’t yet updated its 2020 forecast down, still at 1.68m units (-27%) or lowest since 1992, but we have: we now predict the UK will end 2020 down -38% to 1.44m sales which would be the lowest annual figure in almost 40 years.

May volumes 2004-2020. Source SMMT

Click and collect services, allowed from mid-month, are behind the 20.000 odd sales despite closed dealerships. In a complete reversal from last month, private buyers now account for a whopping 63.7% share vs. 43.2% a year ago in May 2019 thanks to sales down “just” -83.8% to 12.900. Fleet sales implode -93.4% to 6.638 and 32.8% share vs. 54.7% a year ago, and business sales are off -81.1% to 709 and 3.5%. Year-to-date, private deliveries drop -49.4% to 241.761 and 47.6% share vs. 45.7% over the same period in 2019, fleet sales are off -53% to 256.020 and 50.4% vs. 52.1% and business sales down -55.5% to 10.344. Petrol deliveries are down -90.5% to 11.150 and 55.1% share vs. 63.7% in May 2019, diesel is down -93% to 3.448 and 17% vs. 26.7%, HEV falls -91.2% to 651 and 3.2% share vs. 4% a year ago, but BEV is up 21.5% to 2.424 and 12% share vs. just 1.1% in May 2019 and PHEV down -65.1% to 825 yet improving its share from 1.3% to 4.1% year-on-year. Year-to-date, petrol is down -54.9% to 304.712 and 60% share vs. 64.7% over the same period in 2019, diesel is off -66% to 95.946 and 18.9% vs. 27%, HEV drops -28% to 29.089 and 5.7% vs. 3.9% but BEV shoots up 131.8% to 22.054 and 4.3% share vs. 0.9% after 5 months in 2019 and PHEV edges up 13.3% to 14.582 and 2.9% vs. 1.2%.

The Tesla Model 3 is the best-selling vehicle in the UK for the 2nd month running.

Ford (-89.4%) reclaims the brands top spot for the first time since last January but isn’t quite there yet year-to-date, still trailing Volkswagen (-92.4%) by 250 units as the German brand ranks at a paltry 5th place this month. Mercedes (-86.1%) is up 3 spots on April to #2, followed by Audi (-88.1%) up 9 to #3 and BMW (-88.1%) up two to #4. Volvo (-74.4%) manages the thinnest (official) drop in the Top 10 and shoots up 12 ranks on last month to land at a record-breaking 6th place. Vauxhall (-91.4%) is annihilated to #7, Peugeot (-83%) remains at #8 and Kia (-86%) is back inside the UK Top 10 at #9. Leader in a totally atypical ranking last month, Tesla drops to #10 with 4.9% share which is still a remarkable performance. Jaguar (-83.6%), Renault (-84%), Porsche (-85.3%), MG (-85.4%) and Lexus (-85.6%) post the best holds in the remainder of the Top 30. Below, Lotus (-64%), Abarth (-69.7%) and Alpine (-78.6%) do best. All other carmakers lose over -85%. 

The Mercedes GLE breaks into the UK Top 10 for the first time.

The models ranking creeps back towards a little more normality, but the Tesla Model 3 repeats at #1 thanks to a distribution network not reliant on dealerships that allows the company to delivers its cars directly to buyers’ houses. The Vauxhall Corsa (-80.2%) is up one spot on April to #2, joined in the Top 5 by the Ford Fiesta (-88.7%), Mercedes A-Class (-85.2%) and Ford Focus (-91%). This month we have three strangers in the Top 10: the Volvo XC40 leaps up to #6, the Mercedes GLC is up to #8 and the Mercedes E-Class lands at #10. For its part the BMW 1 Series lifts to #7, its first UK Top 10 appearance since June 2019 and highest ranking since November 2017 (#6). The Ford Kuga (-87.7%) returns to the UK Top 10 for the first time this year.

The Peugeot 2008 ranks #18 in May in the UK vs. #82 so far in 2020.

A full Top 160 UK models ranking is now available for the January-May 2020 period as well as a Top 100 models for May, allowing us a much more detail look at this market. It was a very unusual month with with just 20.247 sales as the country was in Covid-19 lockdown. The the Ford Puma is getting closer to its first Top 10 finish in the UK at #13 vs. #30 so far in 2020, the Peugeot 208 is up to #15 for the month vs. #40 YTD, the Volvo S90/V90 up to #17 vs. #110, the Peugeot 2008 up to #18 vs. #82, the Jaguar i-Pace up to #20 vs. #97, the Mercedes CLA up to #23 vs. #74, the Volvo XC60 up to #24 vs. #58, the Volvo S60/V60 up to #31 vs. #109, the Peugeot 108 up to #38 vs. #88 and the Citroen C3 Aircross up to #41 vs. #99.

Previous month: UK April 2020: COVID-19 spread crushes market down -97.3% to lowest month since February 1946

One year ago: UK May 2019: Mercedes, Kia, Toyota resist in 8th market drop in past 9 months (-4.6%), lowest volumes in 6 years

Full May 2020 Top 40 brands and Top 100 models below.

Full YTD 2020 Top 160 models below.