France: My forecast for 2013
I predict the Peugeot 208 will be the best-selling car in France in 2013, but just.
* See my forecast for the Top 10 best-selling models in 2013 by clicking on the title! *
After Australia where I live, I will now venture a 2013 best-selling models forecast for France where I grew up, a market I have been following for the last 25 years but that can reserve a lot of surprises so a little more difficult to predict. I see the French new car market drop by another 10% next year to around 1.7 million, its lowest level since 1997. In fact if the fall is greater than 10% in the first half of the year, the Hollande goverment will be tempted to put in place yet another scrappage scheme to try and reverse the trend. This would impact the best-sellers ranking greatly depending on which segments it targets.
The Renault Clio IV will miss out on the pole position by a mere hundreds units…
La grande question de 2013 will be whether the Peugeot 208 or the Renault Clio IV will win the title of France’s most popular vehicle. As usual the race will be very close, and I give a tiny advantage to the 208, mainly because of its sub-10,000€ starting price, a definitive pull in harsh economic times, the arrival of the much anticipated GTI variant in March and the absence of a 3-door version for the Clio IV. Internal competition will also play a role in deciding next year’s winner. I see the last, heavily promoted units of the Clio III hurting the IV more than the 207+ could hurt the 208, and the similarly-sized electric Renault Zoe also having a negative impact on the Clio IV – Renault saw this coming by delaying the Noe launch so it doesn’t conflict too much with the Clio IV. Then there is the new generation Dacia Sandero which I will talk more about below.
Renault Captur
But the biggest disruption could come from the Renault Captur and Peugeot 2008 crossovers, based on the Clio IV and 208 platforms and entering a category the French have proved to be fond of with the success of the Nissan Juke. These two models will launch too late (June and September respectively) to rank within the 2013 Top 10 but their potential is significant: between 1.5% and 2.2% share in my view, with an advantage for the 2008 as it should be more distinct from the 208 than the Captur from the Clio. These two models will be the biggest French new launches in 2013, ensuring lots of buzz and publicity that could take the attention away from the Clio IV and 208. In any case, the two models should be very close by year-end, both around 5%, which is less than the Clio 3 and 207 achieved in their prime, but in line with the ever-growing fragmentation of the French market.
Peugeot 3008
The Citroen C3 will get a mid-life facelift in 2013 to match the current Brazilian model, but that won’t prevent it to fall faster than the market at -15%, albeit still on the podium. The case is worse for the Renault Megane and Scenic which I predict will drop by 25% and 28% to #4 and #6 respectively. A questionable (ok ugly) design didn’t prevent the Peugeot 3008 to climb the ranking year after year in France, from #11 in 2010 to #9 in 2011 to #8 in 2012. A much needed facelift in September will follow the lines of the Chinese model (above) and allow the 3008 to drop slightly less than the market at -7%, meaning a jump to 5th place in 2013.
Peugeot 2008
Volkswagen is going from strength to strength in France and the Polo has shown what it is capable of in 2012, ranking within the monthly Top 5, something no other foreign model has ever achieved in the country, not once but 3 times in the last 12 months. The German carmaker’s success will continue into 2013 with the Polo following the market at #7 and the all-new Golf up 3 spots to #9. Peugeot will launch the new generation 308 in September and I predict the model to slow down its fall accordingly to -15% at #9, and Citroen will launch the C4 Picasso gen 2 just in time for the Summer holidays which should stabilise its sales next year, up 3 ranks to #10.
Dacia Sandero
Renault completely rethought the Dacia Sandero for the 2nd generation and has just launched it across Europe. Expect the model to fight for a spot in the Top 10 next year, with sales up by 25% to #11. Finally, with the 2nd generation not landing before September 2014, I see Nissan starting to aggressively promote the Qashqai next year which could earn it a lucky spot in the monthly Top 10 once, just once, making it the 2nd Japanese model to ever achieve this feat with the Toyota Yaris.
Do you agree? Disagree? What are your predictions for the French market in 2013? Let me know by commenting on here!
Full Year 2013 forecast Top 10 Ranking Table below.
France Full Year 2013 – Forecast:
| Pos | Model | 2013f | % | /12 | 2012e | % | Pos |
| 1 | Peugeot 208 | 86,000 | 5.1% | 32% | 65,000 | 3.5% | 2 |
| 2 | Renault Clio 4 | 85,000 | 5.0% | 285% | 22,100 | 1.2% | 25 |
| 3 | Citroen C3 | 54,000 | 3.2% | -15% | 63,500 | 3.4% | 3 |
| 4 | Renault Mégane | 46,000 | 2.7% | -25% | 61,500 | 3.3% | 4 |
| 5 | Peugeot 3008 | 41,500 | 2.4% | -7% | 44,500 | 2.4% | 8 |
| 6 | Renault Scénic | 41,200 | 2.4% | -28% | 57,500 | 3.1% | 5 |
| 7 | VW Polo | 41,000 | 2.4% | -9% | 45,000 | 2.4% | 7 |
| 8 | Peugeot 308 | 40,000 | 2.4% | -15% | 47,000 | 2.5% | 6 |
| 9 | VW Golf | 38,000 | 2.2% | 1% | 37,500 | 2.0% | 12 |
| 10 | Citroen C4 Picasso | 34,000 | 2.0% | -3% | 35,000 | 1.9% | 13 |
2012e: BSCB’s estimate
2013f: BSCB’s forecast
Market-share of import-carsw in Germany:
1999: 33,7 %
2000: 33,8 %
2011: 36,5 %
2012: 37,0 %
Market -share of import-cars in Germany 2012 january – september: 37,4 %.
Data for whole 2012 should be available next week.
Some facts concerning the market-share of import-cars in Germany:
I found some more data concerning the market share of import-cars in Germany.
1999: 33,7 %
2000: 33,8 %
2011: 36,5 %
2012 jan-aug: 37,2 %
The tendency is very clear: Germans are buying import-cars more and more.
I will look for some more data and post them here.
source: auto motor & sport, based on KBA-data (Kraftfahr Bundesamt)
Actually the market-share of import-cars in Germany was growing during 2012 as discussed in german statistics in 2012. Not only top-30 is important, but the whole market.
I will post more german data when statistics of the whole year are available.
De très bonnes fêtes de fin d’année à tous !
Article visionnaire assez intéressant ! Vivement fin 2013 afin de vérifier si tes prédictions s’avèrent justes !
Je suis persuadé que de nombreuses surprises peuvent arriver (crise financière, croissance du chômage, évolution de la fiscalité …).
Le groupe VAG, compte tenu de sa position en Chine, continuera sa politique de dumping et avancera en rouleau compresseur écrasant les groupes traditionnels sur le marché français : PSA, Renault, Fiat, Ford et GM …
Hyundai-KIA connaîtra une année de croissance à deux chiffres…
Dans les dix premières du classement, je ne serais pas surpris de voir apparaître la Dacia Sandero, voiture très réussie, et qui colle parfaitement au marché.
Mais également la Toyota yaris produite à Valenciennes et qui fait l’objet par l’UGAP (centrale d’achat de l’état francais et des grands groupes publics francais) d’une commande de 2000 yaris hybride.
Terminez bien l’année !!!!
@Charles Hubert
“pas loin devant la Dacia Sandero II”
tu m’étonnes!
Matt: je t’ai répondu par mail, il y a quelques jours, mais je n’ai toujours pas eu tous les chiffres pour la france pour novembre….
Pas de probleme STAC
Vive la France ! PSA malgré ses difficultés financières compte sortir de nombreux modèles http://www.automobile-magazine.fr/actualites/scoops/peugeot/peugeot_501
That’s the Chinese 3008. Peugeot’s future may very well lie in China.
@tuga
Actually the Peugeot 208 starts in France at 9,990 euros under conditions (to get ride of your >8y old car + State’s green bonus of 200 euros).
Hi Matt. Bonjour from Paris.
Thank you for your bright analysis. As you said, French market could always be surprising… Personally I agree with the first half of your top 10, and I really hope that the 208 will be #1. But I have some doubts about the second half of your top 10 (anyway it’s very difficult to predict) :
- The Peugeot 308 could loose more the -15% ;
- The Citroen C4 could still be in the top 10 (it sales have slow down in the end of this year, but it still has a strong demand for corporate fleets) ;
- The VW Polo is currently selling well thanks to a very aggressive distribution (Match line + rebates + 0% loan) and I am not sure it will be efficient over the full year 2013, as VW can’t do more… Btw Fiat’s CEO Sergio Marchionne was right when accusing VW of dumping in Europe !
- I don’t think the Nissan Qashqai will reach the top 10, as it has been fashionable for a while, but minds seems to be changing. The Dacia Sandero could reasonably reach the top 10 : it looks good, it’s cheap, it fits to the crisis mood…
Meilleurs voeux pour les fêtes de fin d’année !
Merci pour tes voeux Thomas, de même pour toi!
Thanks for this insight – just a precision: I am not saying the Qashqai will rank within the Top 10 at year-end, just that it may jump inside it for one month only during 2013… And I agree, the 308 could/should lose more than 15% (more like 25%) but I’m giving it the benefit of the doubt given the new generation will launch after Summer. The Dacia Sandero could go further than my predictions, especially if a scrappage scheme is implemented during the year. I chose to stay on the conservative side at +25% as Dacia sales are always extremely unpredictable…
Cheers,
Matt
10 %? No, I think that it is a too important reduction. The market could be relaunched by the offer with a large number of launches on the segment of small cars appreciated in France (Renault Clio IV, Peugeot 208, Citroën C3 II Facelift, Dacia Sandero II, Ford Fiesta Facelift, Kia Rio, Hyundai I20 Facelift, Mitsubishi Mirage, etc).
Personnellement je suis en France et je ne pense pas que la 208 sera en tête des ventes, ce serait une énorme surprise, par contre la Clio va reprendre rapidement son leader sheap de meilleure voiture française, pas loin devant la Dacia Sandero II.
I think the 208 will win the top spot. The new Clio is more like the premium cousin of the Sandero.
The French should follow the Germans in an FRENCH BRANDS ONLY approach.
The German Top 30 of ‘best selling cars’ (sic;) is an almost ALL GERMAN AFFAIR.
Imagine the French would do similar during 2013.
Goal:Support their car industry.
I think the 208 has this one covered. The Clio IV has been hammered by the press for being a step down from the III, and the 208, although not perfect, is already selling in droves. All the Clio has for it are a proper automatic gearbox and the Estate ( both will launch in March, i think ), which are niche cars. Also, the Sandero, the Captur, the Zoe with a Z
and the sure to be heavily promoted Megane will all take sales away from the Clio.
BTW, the 208 starts at 12k, not 10. The Clio starts at 13.7…