China March 2020: Wholesales down -44.3%, retail down -40%, daily rate up each week

14/03 update: Now with CAAM wholesales data.

11/04 update: Now with wholesales preliminary data.

According to preliminary figures released by the China Passenger Car Association (CPCA) and relayed by local outlet China Automotive Review, retail sales of Passenger Cars in China have rebounded March at -40% to 1.075.968 units excluding minivans, to be compared with official figures of -79.1% in February. The daily rate has improved from just 811 units during the first week of February (-96% year-on-year) to 53.897 during the last week of March (-24% year-on-year). This leads to a Q1 2020 preliminary retail volume of 3.067.316 units, down -40.8% on 2019 (5.178.654). Looking at the PC segments in detail for March, sedans/hatches are down -41.8% to 499.538, SUVs down -37.7% to 477.521, MPVs down -47.4% to 68.617 and minivans down -24.4% to 30.562. Year-to-date, sedans/hatches are at -42.3% to 1.444.967, SUVs at -37.5% to 1.384.600 – going against CAAM wholesales figures that place SUVs as the #1 segment, MPVs at -50.2% to 184.832 and minivans at -38.9% to 52.917.

CPCA also published preliminary March wholesales data (factory shipments to dealerships) which show a slightly worse-off picture as factories were gradually getting back online during the course of the month. Overall Personal Vehicle (PV) wholesales are predicted to go down -48.3% year-on-year in March to 1.021.584 units, with cars down -48.9% to 478.828, edging past SUVs for the first time this year, these falling -43.7% to 476.166 whole MPVs falter -69.2% to 45.509 and minivans drop -56.4% to 21.081. Year-to-date, Chinese wholesales are now down -45.5% to 2.866.569 with SUVs keeping the segment lead at 1.370.131 (-39.8%) ahead of cars at 1.316.651 (-47.8%) with MPVs down -62.3% to 136.172 and minivans down -54% to 43.615.

On April 13 CAAM published official wholesales data that show the Chinese market down -43.3% year-on-year to 1.430.000 units. Passenger Vehicles fall almost exactly as CPCA anticipated a few days back at -48.4% to 1.043.000 units, and it’s Commercial Vehicles that roll the fall back up a little at -22.6% to 388.000 units. Looking into the detail of Passenger Vehicles, Cars (-48.6%) edge back above SUVs at 491.000 vs. 485.000 (-43.9%) with MPVs imploding -70% to 46.000 and minivans down -58.2% to 21.000. Year-to-date, SUVs (-39.6%) remain the dominant segment at 1.372.000 units above Cars (-47.6%) at 1.325.000, MPVs (-63.3%) at 136.000 and minivans (-54.1%) at 45.000. CAAM also says NEVs are down -53.2% to 53.000, however that doesn’t include a record 10.600 Teslas, it’s unclear why these weren’t included. BEV wholesales are down -55.6% to 40.000 and PHEV down -44.1% to 13.000.

Final detailed China March 2020 wholesales and retail data will be published in separate articles when made available to us.