UK First Half 2016: Record volume but Brexit brings cloudy horizon

Ford Mustang – Ford remains the #1 brand in the UK but drops 3%.

* NOW UPDATED with the Top 120 models and Top 40 brands *

The First Half 2016 sales results for the UK are brilliant: up 3% to 1.420.636, the highest-ever 6 month-result in the history of automobile in the country. However, as we pointed out in our study UK: Brexit means no sales record in 2016 and production uncertainty, the chances of a second consecutive record year in the UK are near-to-none. Barely a week after the country voted to exit the European Union, the UK market posted its 2nd year-on-year decline in 4 years in June – the first was last November. The 2nd half of the year will be a difficult and uncertain one for UK sales as the market finds a new equilibrium outside the EU, both in terms of production and private consumer behaviours.

Mercedes sales are up 18% year-on-year in the UK so far in 2016. 

Meanwhile we are witnessing a fragmentation of the market brand-wise, with the Top 3 best-sellers each losing volume and almost one percentage point of share market year-on-year: Ford is down 3% to 171.192 and 12.1%, Vauxhall down 7% to 132.947 and 9.4% and Volkswagen is the hardest hit at -9% to 109.566 and 7.7%. The podium accounts for 29.2% of the UK market over H1 2016 vs. 31.9% a year ago. Reversely, the three luxury brands coming next in line all display arrogant health: BMW is up 14% to overtake Audi (+4%) in 4th place with 6.4% share while Mercedes is up an even more impressive 18% to 6.2%. Below, Nissan (-6%), Peugeot (-4%), Toyota (+1%) and Hyundai (+3%) all display declining or – at best – identical market shares compared to a year ago. Further down, Honda (+17%), Land Rover (+18%), Renault (+21%), Jeep (+42%), Smart (+63%), Jaguar (+68%), Ssangyong (+74%) and Infiniti (+157%) are among manufacturers frankly outpacing the market.

The Vauxhall Mokka breaks into the YTD Top 10. 

Model-wise, the Ford Fiesta is headed straight towards an 8th consecutive year in pole position despite sales down a harsh 11% to 63.833. Yet that’s a better hold than the Vauxhall Corsa (-15%) and Ford Focus (-14%) rounding up the podium. In fact, the Top 7 best-sellers – in an order that is unchanged compared to H1 2015 – all lose volume year-on-year in a clear illustration of market fragmentation. The VW Golf and Nissan Qashqai, both at -2%, are the least affected at #4 and #5 respectively. The Mini (+4%) is the first model to improve at #8 with 24.293 units sold, while the Vauxhall Mokka breaks into the Top 10 to reach a best-ever #9 (+5%) and the Mercedes C-Class drops 11% but retains its spot among the country’s 10 favourite vehicles.

Splendid landing by the Hyundai Tucson in the UK. 

Just outside the familiar Top 10, the Mercedes A-Class surges 44% to #11, the Kia Sportage is up 78% to #13 and the Ford Kuga up 18% to #17. The Range Rover Evoque gains 6 spots and 18% to #22, the Hyundai Tucson is the most popular new launch, landing at #26 above the Renault Kadjar at #41. The Vauxhall Viva misses out on a Top 50 ranking for a few hundred units, with the Fiat 500X at #59, the Jaguar XE at #60 and the Citroen C4 Cactus at #69.

Previous post: UK June 2016: Brexit triggers 2nd year-on-year drop in 4 years

Full Year 2015 post: UK Full Year 2015: Market up 6% to record 2.633.503 units

One year ago (1): UK 1st Half 2015: Registrations up 7% to highest-ever half year score

One year ago (2): UK 1st half 2015: Now with Top 360 All-models ranking (BSCB exclusive)

Full H1 2016 Top 10 models and Top 40 brands vs. Full H1 2015 figures below.