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Germany July 2020: Market fall thaws to -5.4%, Skoda and Octavia break records, VW ID.3 lands

The VW ID.3 has finally landed in the German sales charts.

02/09 update: Now with Top 290 All Private Sales models.

German new car sales significantly reduce their decline from -32.2% in June to -5.4% in July at 314.938 units, reclaiming the European top spot. Yet unlike the UK (+11.3%), France (+3.9%) and Spain (+1.1%) Germany has so far failed to surf on pent-up demand and reduced VAT to return to positive. The year-to-date tally is now down -30.1% to 1.525.560 units and we have adjusted our 2020 Germany Forecast up from 2.76 million (-23%) to 2.87 million (-20%), but this would still be the lowest annual volume in 35 years: since 1985 (2.38m). As it is the case in most European markets, private sales are driving the recovery in Germany, up 7.1% year-on-year to 129.124 and 41% share vs. 36.2% in July 2019 whereas fleet volumes sink -12.5% to 185.814 and 58.9% share vs. 63.8% a year ago. Petrol sales drop -20.3% to 154.352 and 49% share, diesel is off -18.6% to 89.543 but electrified vehicles surge 151.8% to 69.286 and 22% share vs. just 8.3% in July 2019. This includes EV up 181.7% to 16.798 and 5.3% share, PHEV up 484.7% to 19.119 and 6.1% share and HEV up 82.5% to 33.369.

German monthly sales 2018-2020 comparison. Source: KBA

Volkswagen (-3.3%) easily remains the most popular carmaker at home with 19% share but like Audi (-20.8%) at #4, is stuck in negative for now. On the other hand both Mercedes (+10.7%) and BMW (+17.4%) cement their respective #2 and #3 spots thanks to stellar double-digit gains. For its part Skoda (+8.3%) cracks the German Top 5 for only the 3rd time in history after March 2009 and August 2019, breaking its market share record at 7% (previous best 6.8% in September 2017), lodging its 2nd largest ever monthly volume at 22.084 (record 25.081 in March 2009) and outselling Ford for only the 3rd time ever after December 2012 and September 2017. Renault (+29.9%) is the only remaining Top 10 brand in positive – sporting the biggest uptick in the Top 13, whereas Opel (-45.2%), Seat (-22.8%) and Ford (-22.55) all stumble down. Just outside the Top 10, Mini (+35.7%), Fiat (+27.1%) and Kia (+23%) shine, while further down Lotus (+78.6%), Subaru (+63.9%), Ferrari (+48.7%), Jeep (+42.2%), Lamborghini (+42.1%), Mitsubishi (+33.4%), Ssangyong (+26.4%), Aston Martin (+24%) and Nissan (+21%) stand out.

The new Octavia (+44.5%) helps Skoda to a new share record in Germany.

Over in the models ranking, the VW Golf (+1.6%) finally puts an end to an atrocious six consecutive double-digit declines and takes advantage of the new generation to hit 5.3% share, its highest so far this year. The VW Tiguan (-18.8%) remains in 2nd place despite a dreadful loss, while the Skoda Octavia (+44.5%) is boosted by the new model to a first ever German podium finish at #3, eclipsing its previous best of #4 from March 2016 and May 2019 and smashing its volume record at 7.233 vs. 6.677 in March 2009. The VW T-Roc (+16.7%) edges up one spot on June to #4 while the Fiat Ducato (+123.2%) is down two but still surfs on the motorhome boom triggered by the Covid-19 pandemic (see our May 2020 and June 2020 updates for more detail). The BMW 3 Series (+81.3%), Mercedes A-Class (+69%), Mini lineup (+35.7%) and VW Polo (+17.2%) also stun with fantastic gains in the remainder of the Top 10.

The 3 Series (+81.3%) helps push BMW up 17.4% in July.

Below, the Renault Zoe (+213.3%) lifts to a record #36 while the Mercedes CLA (+139.4%), Mitsubishi Space Star (+132.6%), Renault Clio (+77.1%), Mercedes GLC (+71.6%), BMW X1 (+68.4%), Hyundai Kona (+65.5%), BMW 1 Series (+60.3%), Opel Grandland X (+30.2%) and Skoda Kodiaq (+28.6%) also make themselves noticed inside the Top 50. The Skoda Kamiq (#40) remains the most popular recent launch (<12 months) but is now feeling the heat from the Ford Puma (#42) up 14 spots on June to a new ranking record. The Mazda CX-30 (#73) and Mercedes GLB (#127) follow at a distance. But the main event in July in Germany is arguably the landing of the much-anticipated VW ID.3 at #215 with its very first 104 sales. Judging by how Volkswagen upstaged the ID.3 vs. the Golf 8 at the latest Frankfurt Auto Show, this could be the start of a new historical best-seller for Volkswagen. Its gearing up over the next few months coupled with how well the new Golf will resist will make for fascinating reading.

Previous post: Germany First Half 2020: Market stripped off -34.5% by Covid-19 crisis to lowest in 45 years

Previous month: Germany June 2020: Weak result (-32.2%) tiggers lowest June since 1985 despite continued motorhome bonanza

One year ago: Germany July 2019: Diesel (+7%), fleet sales (+5.9%), Mercedes (+22.4%) and BMW (+32.2%) lift market up 4.7%

Full July 2020 Top 50 All-brands, Top 307 All-models and Top 290 All Private Sales models below.

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